Fiji could face an East Timor style showdown after revelations the government there is considering slashing its coup prone military force in half.
A secret review calls for cutting the Republic of the Fiji Military Force (RFMF) from its present 3,300 fulltime soldiers to 1,700, with most cuts from frontline soldiers. It wants Fiji's current annual military budget of around $57 million cut to $21 million.
Fearing a dangerous reaction the Government's National Security and Defence Review has been kept secret for over two years but last month newly re-elected Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase hinted its recommendations would be followed.
Cabinet is expected to consider action this month, setting up yet another stand-off with RFMF commander Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama who last month threatened martial law.
In Timor around a third of the 1,200 strong Forces Armadas de Defesa de Timor were fired, promoting the unrest there which has seen around 2,500 foreign troops, including New Zealanders, trying to keep the peace.
New Zealand Defence Minister Phil Goff, who is in Singapore, was not willing to comment on the Fiji situation as he had not seen the review. Foreign Minister Winston Peters was touring the South Pacific and could not be reached for comment. New Zealand provides most of the RFMF training.
Although the report says Commodore Bainimarama was consulted, he recently said he did not know what was in the document.
The RFMF staged two coups in 1987 and its special forces soldiers played key role in the 2000 George Speight coup as well as a mutiny later that year.
Oxford University based academic Victor Lal told Fairfax yesterday he had the report but said he was unclear how much support Commodore Bainimarama might have if the review was pushed through.
''I don't think it will be an East Timor - Bainimarama doesn't have grassroots Fijian support,'' he said.
Writing in the Fiji Sun on the paper, which was submitted to Mr Qarase in 2004 and kept secret, Mr Lal says it strongly recommends that the government reasserts civilian control over the army.
It calls for the Fiji Police Force to be strengthened to assume full responsibility for maintaining law and internal security.
The primary role of the army would be peacekeeping although most of the cuts would come in combat ranks, leaving Fiji with a 350 strong engineer regiment and a 340 soldier infantry force.
The review says Fiji does not face external military threats but its principle challenge was domestic instability.
It says the RFMF should have peacekeeping as its primary role and should only be involved in assisting the police in the event of large-scale social unrest, terrorism and sear and rescue.
The study says Fiji's military had become disoriented after years of policy neglect, the ending of its 24 years of UN peacekeeping in Lebanon and the coup and mutiny in 2000.
''Fiji has a strategic interest in the cohesion and professionalism of the RFMF,'' the study says.
''The RFMF is widely credited with 'saving the nation' in 2000 but in doing so it exhibited internal strains based on provincial rather than national loyalties".
During general elections last month Commodore Bainimarama publicly took exception to the Qarase Government, claiming it was out to replace him with a New Zealand commander - something strongly denied since. The Defence White Paper makes no recommendation on leadership.
The commander also claimed the New Zealand government had given legal advise to the Fiji Government over the RFMF's place in the constitution. He objected to this saying he had not been asked.
The Fiji Times reported yesterday that Home Affairs Minister Josefa Vosanibola - the minister in charge of the RFMF - would meet with the commander soon to discuss the government's intentions to seek a Supreme Court ruling on the military's role.
Mr Vosanibola confirmed that would be one of the first things he would take care of before proceeding to other matters.
"He (military commander) did say that he has his own interpretation of the Constitution," Mr Vosanibola said.
"That is why we have court to go to."